Purpose Statement    

      Recent manifestations of eutrophication in Lake Erie have become increasingly prevalent, despite evidence that total phosphorus loadings are at or near target levels that previously were deemed adequate to prevent appearance of nuisance algae, hazardous algal blooms and other manifestations. Findings of various task groups and symposia suggest that changes in the form rather than just the quantity of phosphorus may be responsible.

      Postulated sources include changing agricultural practices, increasing discharge from urban centres, and/or transformations or altered cycling by in-lake processes: http://web2.uwindsor.ca/lemn/ResearchNeedsWorkshop42.htm

      In February 2009, the Water Quality Board of the IJC and LEMN convened a workshop to assess the weight of evidence supporting each hypothesis www.ijc.org/en/priorities/2009/reports/2009-eutrophication.pdf

     Possible causes and ultimate endpoints were summarized by participants in a series of flow charts (fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) designed to graphically represent understanding and uncertainties about the processes.  Both urban-related functions and agricultural activities may be significant external drivers of the reappearance of eutrophication, and likely play an especially important in the Lake Erie ecosystem.

    In March 2010, we convened a workshop to improve the resolution of postulated relationships between agricultural activities and eutrophication: .http://web2.uwindsor.ca/lemn/March2010AgFCMWorkshop4.4.htm Practices related to agriculture are possibly more amenable to 'no regrets' management actions than other postulated causes of the eutrophication issue.

                                                                               Goal of Workshop  

     This workshop (a complement and refinement of one convened in March 2013) will further our current understanding of the causes and consequences of the reappearance of eutrophication, emphasizing the potential role of urbanization on the Lake Erie nearshore. The goal is to develop a detailed fuzzy cognitive map that focuses on the urban-related, land-based pathways and variables that have the potential to influence eutrophication in Lake Erie.

* A complementary workshop - (LEMN 4.5C) is planned for summer 2014 in Ohio. Dates and location are being finalized

Background on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM)   

     Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are a way of representing - among other things - the causal structure of a system.  The maps consist of two sorts of elements: “concepts” (boxes) and “relationships” (directed arrows that link two or more concepts).  The benefit of having multiple individuals prepare their own FCMs is that one gains from the variety of backgrounds and perspectives of participants.  A consensus FCM, derived by amalgamating the individual FCMs, is ultimately a useful tool in representing the causal structure of the re-eutrophication problem in the Great Lakes, and can help to inform management decisions.

Workshop activities 

Before the workshop.  Based on a review of recent literature and presentations focusing on urban centres and nutrient effects in the Great Lakes, workshop organizers have compiled a list of key terms that summarize the possible causes, pathways and endpoints of development-related nutrient contribution to Lake Erie.  This list will be distributed to conference participants before the workshop. 

Activity 1.  Working from the list of terms provided by the workshop organizers, participants will select a subset of key terms they believe will be necessary to develop their own FCM (these terms will become FCM “concepts”).  New terms can be added to the list. However, these will be discussed with the group before being integrated into the final consensus FCM.  Developing individual lists of key terms is best done before the workshop day to avoid any influence of participants on one other. However, participants can also work to develop this list during the time allotted for Activity 2. 

Activity 2.  Participants will draw individual FCMs based on their personal lists of key terms.  This will be done using pencil and paper, so that participants can easily reconfigure and alter their FCM to their satisfaction.  Participants will draw arrows representing the cause-effect relationships between pairs of variables.  Participants will also assign values to each relationship, summarizing direction of the relationship, its strength, evidence base, spatial scale, temporal scale, universality, and the feasibility of implementing change (see Table 1). 

Activity 3.  Once all participants have completed their individual FCMs, we will work as a group to integrate information from all maps into a single consensus map, as time permits during the workshop and in follow-up calls  to participants.  The consensus map will be developed through group discussion and through the integration of map variables and relationships.  At the end of the exercise, we will have a single, consensual fuzzy cognitive map depicting the role of urban impacts in driving re-eutrophication.

FCM Definitions and Terminology

 Fuzzy Cognitive/Conceptual Map (FCM): A tool for schematically representing causal relationships within a system.  A qualitative model of how a given system operates.  See example

Concept (node, vertex): A “box” in a FCM.  Represents a factor or process.

Arc: An “arrow” in a FCM.  Depicts a causal relationship between two factors or processes.

Proposition (link): Two concepts connected by an arc, depicting the effect one concept has on another concept.

Arc attributes: Descriptors assigned to an arc, describing the relationship (e.g. directionality, strength).  For this exercise, we will be using seven attributes: Sign, Importance/Strength, Evidence base, Spatial scale, temporal scale, Universality, and Change feasibility.  See Table 1.

Consensual map: The union of several individual maps.

Table 1. Arc attributes, rank, description and potential attribute values/scores.

Fuzzy Cognitive Map: Example (Note: this is a very simplified example!)

 Problem:  What are the causes and effects of climate change?

 Step 1: Choose a subset of the most important variables from a larger list of key terms

 List of key terms provided                             Subset  (terms selected in blue, discarded terms in purple)

Greenhouse Gases                                                         Greenhouse Gases Unicorns                                                                            Unicorns
Number of Cars                                                                Number of Cars
Helium Balloons                                                               Helium Balloons
↑ Sea Temperature                                                        ↑ Sea Temperature
Cats                                                                                   Cats
Polka dancing                                                                   Polka dancing
↑ Air Temperature                                                          ↑ Air Temperature
Coral reef bleaching                                                        Coral reef bleaching
Increased Commercial Fishing                                      Increased Commercial Fishing
Amount of Arctic Ice                                                        Amount of Arctic Ice

 Step 2: Draw a fuzzy cognitive map based on personal best professional judgement

 Next step: Compare and discuss this map with other participants

 Final step: Develop consensus map

Logistics

     Date: Friday, April 25
     Time: 8:45 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.         

Provisional Agenda
Friday April 25 2014
                8:45   Coffee; informal gathering
                9:00  Welcome and Introductions
                9:15  Introduction to the problem
                9:35 Introduction to the exercise
              10:00   FCM creation  - part I                           
              12:05 Working Lunch;  Reporting out & clarification of terms
                        Brief presentations and research interest summaries (5 min each)
                1:00   FCM creation part II
                4:00 Discussion -       key map elements by group
                                                most important links
                                                most variable links
                                                least understood links
                                                greatest data needs
                4:40 Discussion - Developing a consensual map; next steps

                5:00 Adjourn
 

Conference Centre Information

Location: Upper Thames River Conservation Authority,
                   1424 Clarke Road,
                    London, Ontario
                    N5V 5B9,
                   519-451-2800
                  
Directions: 
-  Coming off the 401, for either east and west, you will take the Veterans Memorial Parkway, exit 194, also known as Airport Road and proceed north for 11.8 km.
-  Turn left on Huron Street and travel for 900 m.
-  Turn right on Clarke Road, go north for 800 m
-  Turn right onto an Fanshawe Conservation Access Road.
-  Proceed to the gate and turn right at stop sign before the dam, arriving at the Watershed Conservation Centre. (see map).

For more information please contact

     Jesse Gardner Costa
     Department of Biological Sciences, University of Windsor, Tel.: 519-253-3000 ext. 4764
     Jan Ciborowski
     Department of Biological Sciences, University of Windsor, Tel.: 519-253-3000 ext. 2725

Organizing Committee:
     Jan Ciborowski, & Jesse Gardner Costa, University of Windsor

     Brad Bass,  Environment Canada                                        
     Chris Marvin & Veronique Hiriart-Baer, Environment Canada 
     Russ Kreis, EPA MED Great Lakes Research Lab, Grosse Ile 
     Jeff Reutter, Ohio Sea Grant & F.T. Stone Lab, Ohio State University

Upcoming Events